The September Surge...Let's Talk About It
I've been thinking a lot about the September Surge as the calendar gets ready to flip.
I've talked about it for years.
I've made YouTube videos about it. I've written about it. I've been quoted in SUCCESS Magazine talking about how job seekers can take advantage of it.
But this year?
I'm not quite ready to tell you that the September Surge is coming.
Because this is a very different job market.
What Is the September Surge?
The September Surge is seen as a time of year when hiring picks up after the summer slowdown.
And there are legitimate business reasons why it can happen.
Summer is ending. Vacations are wrapping up. Kids are going back to school. Businesses return to a more normal cadence.
The Q4 push begins as organizations look at revenue goals, project deadlines, and everything they still need to accomplish before year-end.
Direct-to-consumer businesses begin ramping up for the holiday promotional season stretching from Black Friday through the New Year.
And then there's headcount.
If leaders have committed headcount and budget allocated to fill those positions, there can be pressure to get people hired before the end of the fiscal year. Leave a position open too long and that headcount, and potentially the budget attached to it, could disappear.
As a former Fortune 50 hiring leader, all of those reasons were valid for me and my scope of responsibility.
Not every reason, every year.
But multiple reasons, every year.
That's part of why I've talked about the September Surge for so long.
I've experienced it.
But experience and historical patterns don't automatically and accurately predict what's going to happen in 2026.
Will Hiring Actually Surge This September?
That's the question I'm asking this year.
And there are arguments on both sides.
There's reason to believe hiring could pick up…
First, the labor market hasn't stopped hiring.
The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reported approximately 5.3M hires in June. Layoffs remained relatively low. Economists have described this as a "slow-hire, slow-fire" labor market.
That matters.
Companies haven't necessarily eliminated all of those positions. Some have simply become much slower and more selective about filling them.
Could the return from summer vacations, Q4 priorities and year-end deadlines finally push some of those hiring decisions forward?
Absolutely.
We're also not seeing weakness everywhere.
In July, employment increased in areas including health and education services, construction, professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing.
Read more about my opinion on it here.
Small-business sentiment has improved too, with 20% of owners in a recent survey saying they planned to add jobs.
There are employers hiring.
There are industries hiring.
And there are reasons some companies may have more urgency to hire as we move toward the end of the year.
Yet, there are some pretty big reasons to be cautious…
This is the part we can't ignore.
LinkedIn's latest Workforce Report found that U.S. hiring was 7.6% lower in July 2026 than it was a year earlier.
Even more striking?
Hiring is currently 26% below its pre-pandemic February 2020 pace.
Then came the July Jobs Report.
The U.S. economy lost 23K jobs.
And the May and June employment numbers were revised downward by a combined 103K.
Consumer confidence also fell in August to its lowest level in seven months, with Americans increasingly concerned about the labor market and inflation.
And there's one more piece of this that matters when we're talking specifically about a September Surge.
Retail employment declined by 19.4K in July. Leisure and hospitality lost another 40K.
Those consumer-facing industries have traditionally played a role in the fall hiring story as companies prepare for increased holiday demand.
So will there be more hiring after Labor Day?
I think there could be.
Will I tell you that some massive wave of hiring is coming and you should simply hang on until September?
No.
The data doesn't support making that promise.
And more importantly, I don't want you building your job search around a promise the market hasn't made.
What's Better Than the September Surge?
A solid job-search strategy.
You cannot control whether employers collectively decide to hire more people in September.
You can control how prepared you are when the right employer decides to hire you.
And that starts with knowing what you want.
I do not recommend the mindset of… "I'll take anything."
Ask yourself: what do you actually want to do next? What roles are you targeting? What industries and organizations need what you know how to do?
Once you know that, make sure the tools you're using to market yourself support that goal.
Your résumé needs to be current and communicate your value, not only job responsibilities.
Your LinkedIn profile needs to reinforce what you want to be known for, and you need to be visible. I don't want you sitting around hoping somebody notices you. Visibility means allowing yourself to be seen by others as you want to be seen.
Then look at how you're finding opportunities.
Don't make clicking "Apply" on job boards your entire strategy.
Use company career sites. Pay attention to how recently opportunities were posted. Track what you're applying to and the response you're getting so you can recognize when your strategy needs to change.
And grow your circle of influence.
Talk to people.
Reconnect with former colleagues. Build relationships with people in the organizations and industries you're targeting. Connect with recruiters who specialize in the work you want to do.
Tell people what you're looking for so they can actually help you.
Then be ready when the opportunity comes.
Answer the phone.
Check your email.
Respond to the recruiter.
Prepare for the interview.
Know your accomplishments and be ready to talk about them.
Because whether September brings us 500K new jobs, 50K new jobs, or another disappointing jobs report, your career cannot depend on waiting for the market to give you permission to move.
So, Is the September Surge Real?
Yes.
And no.
There are legitimate seasonal business conditions that can cause hiring to accelerate after Labor Day. I've experienced them firsthand as a hiring leader, and we've seen years when the data show a September hiring rebound.
We've also seen years when it didn't happen.
2026 may give us another surge.
Or it may not.
We'll know a lot more soon. The July JOLTS report will be released September 1, followed by the August Jobs Report on September 4.
I'll be watching both.
But I'm not waiting for either one to tell you what to do with your career.
Don't wait for the September Surge.
Build a job-search strategy strong enough to create opportunities whether it comes or not.
Ready to Build a Stronger Job Search Strategy?
You don't have to wait for the job market to change to change what's happening in your job search.
If you're applying consistently but aren't getting the response you expected, or you're not sure your current strategy is getting you in front of the right opportunities, let's talk.
Schedule a conversation with me, and we'll talk about where you are in your search, where you want to go next, and how I can help you build a strategy designed to get you there.
