Job Market Reality Check: Hiring Is Happening. Now What?
This article is part of the monthly Job Market Reality Check series, where I analyze employment trends and translate labor market data into practical career strategies for professionals navigating today's evolving workplace.
Well, September has come and gone.
And I've been waiting to see whether the employment reports would give us any evidence of the September Surge I've been talking about.
The good news?
Jobs are being added. People are getting hired.
The latest reports give me real reasons to be encouraged.
September showed signs of hiring activity, but I'm not ready to declare it a “surge” quite yet. I want to see whether that hiring activity continues into the final months of the year.
What Caught My Attention
There were three things I found particularly interesting this month.
ADP reported that private employers added 90K jobs in September, an encouraging improvement over August.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a more modest gain of 29K jobs.
Meanwhile, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced layoffs declined from August.
Taken together, these reports offer some encouraging signs, although they don't tell exactly the same story.
ADP and BLS use different methodologies, and their monthly estimates have differed significantly throughout 2026. I've discussed those differences in previous articles, but another factor deserves attention this month, revisions to previously reported employment numbers.
The Revisions Are Significant
Throughout 2026, employment estimates have been revised as additional information becomes available. Some revisions have been modest. Others have been substantial.
The August BLS employment estimate was initially reported at +162K jobs and subsequently revised downward to +133K, a difference of 29K jobs.
Revisions are a normal part of how BLS produces employment estimates. The initial numbers are released quickly, and the agency updates them as more employer information becomes available.
Those changes really matter when we're trying to understand the direction of the job market.
I've watched headlines celebrate strong employment growth, only to see the numbers adjusted in subsequent reports.
I've also seen revisions move in the other direction.
That's why I look at several reports together rather than make predictions based on one month's numbers. Initial estimates provide an early picture. Revisions help us understand how that picture changes as more information becomes available.
Don’t Overlook Mid-sized Employers
Here's one finding from September's ADP report that I think deserves more attention.
Establishments with 50–499 employees accounted for approximately 60% of September's net private-sector employment growth.
WOW!
It made me think about how professionals build their target employer lists.
We often start with familiar names: major employers in our communities, well-known companies, and organizations that regularly appear on lists of top employers.
There's nothing wrong with targeting those organizations.
But what about the mid-sized companies you may not know as much about?
Some of these organizations offer opportunities to contribute across multiple business functions, work more closely with decision-makers, and take on responsibilities that might be distributed among several positions at a larger company.
ADP's findings don't mean every mid-sized company is hiring, and establishment size isn't necessarily the same as the total size of the organization.
But the report gives us a good reason to look beyond familiar employers when researching opportunities.
Did the September Surge Arrive?
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the September Surge and why I was cautiously optimistic about fall hiring.
Challenger's outlook for seasonal holiday hiring suggests employers may approach the final months of the year more conservatively than in previous years. Retailers will add seasonal positions, but the extent of that hiring remains uncertain.
So, did the September Surge arrive?
Not in the way we've traditionally thought about it.
September brought some encouraging hiring activity, but the reports don't establish a broad-based surge. Employers appear to be making careful decisions about where and when to expand their teams.
This may be what fall hiring looks like in a labor market where employers are reluctant to lay people off but equally cautious about adding employees.
Hiring Is Happening…Slowly
Imagine working for an organization that isn't laying off employees but isn't adding many new positions either.
If you're happy where you are, that might feel reassuring.
But what if you're ready for a promotion? Interested in changing employers? Or you've been unemployed for several months and are trying to find your next opportunity?
The same labor market can feel very different depending on your circumstances.
Economists have described this environment as a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market. Bruce Fallick of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland examined this pattern in an August 2026 analysis.
The concept describes an environment where employers are holding onto existing employees while remaining cautious about hiring new ones.
For someone who's been unemployed for six months or longer, those delays can be particularly difficult.
I've talked previously about extended unemployment and the additional challenges it creates for job seekers.
What This Means for Your Career
Whether you're actively searching or considering a career move, there are several ways to make your approach more effective in this market.
Expand your target employer list
If you've concentrated on large, recognizable organizations, research some of the less familiar employers in your industry and community. Learn about their leadership teams, business priorities, and potential growth opportunities.
Understand what potential employers need
Review several job descriptions for your target role. Look for recurring competencies, technologies, and responsibilities. These patterns can help you understand how employers' expectations are changing.
Then ask yourself: Where have I delivered measurable results? What problems have I solved? How could that experience benefit another organization?
Make those connections explicit in your résumé, LinkedIn profile, networking conversations, and interviews.
Invest in professional relationships
Reconnect with former colleagues and get to know people at your target organizations. Ask what they're seeing in their industries and how their organizations are changing.
These conversations can provide valuable information, introduce you to opportunities, and strengthen relationships that may benefit your career well beyond your current search.
Prepare for a longer hiring process
Track your applications and conversations, follow up thoughtfully, and continue pursuing opportunities while waiting for decisions.
A delay in the process isn’t necessarily a comment on you as a candidate. Employers have approval processes, competing priorities, and business decisions that can affect timing.
Focus your energy on what you can influence: preparation, relationships, communicating your value, and making thoughtful decisions about where to invest your time.
The Reality Check
So, where does September leave us?
I'm encouraged, although hiring activity remains uneven.
Employers are making hiring decisions, but the pace and availability of opportunities vary across the market.
I'll be watching the October and November reports to see whether that activity continues.
I don't want you waiting for the perfect job market to make career decisions.
If you're ready for a change, explore your options. If you're actively searching, keep evaluating what's working and what needs to change. Even if you're happy where you are, keep investing in your professional relationships and development.
Your next career move deserves your attention, whether or not the employment reports deliver a surge.
If you'd like help evaluating your career options, developing a more focused job search strategy, or preparing for your next opportunity, my virtual Zoom door is open.
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