Job Market Reality Check: Is Hiring Picking Up?

Sep 14

This article is part of the monthly Job Market Reality Check series, where I analyze employment trends and translate labor market data into practical career strategies for professionals navigating today's evolving workplace.

After last month's employment reports, I really thought the August numbers would align.

Nope.

They don't.

ADP reported a modest +38K increase in private employment.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a much larger +162K increase in nonfarm payroll employment.

At the same time, the Challenger, Grey & Christmas report announced that layoffs declined compared with August 2025, and previous BLS employment estimates were revised upward.

Great news?

Yes, I think so.

Evidence of a true September Surge?

Maybe.

There are encouraging signs in these reports. There are also enough differences in the data to remind us why one headline number never tells us everything we need to know about the job market.

I think this month's story is about encouraging signs, conflicting measurements, and employers who are still cautious about hiring.

Gen X professional woman comparing August 2026 employment reports and job market data at her desk.

What the August 2026 Employment Reports Show

The ADP National Employment Report

According to the ADP National Employment Report, private employers added 38K jobs in August.

Most of that growth came from large employers. Companies with 500+ employees added 34K jobs.

Industry results were mixed.

Education and health services added 45K jobs, construction added 12K, and financial activities added 6K.

Those gains were offset by losses in professional and business services, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality.

ADP's headline number certainly isn't bad news. Private employment grew. And it’s also okay to recognize that +38K new jobs represents modest growth.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report

The BLS reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162K jobs in August.

That's a dramatically different number, don’t you agree?

Food services and drinking places added 59K jobs.

Local government education added 42K.

Manufacturing continued its recent upward trend, adding 16K jobs.

Health care added another 13K, while construction added another +22K.

Information employment declined by approximately 23K jobs.

There was another piece of encouraging news buried in the report.

BLS revised its previous employment estimates upward.

June received an additional +11K adjustment, while July was revised upward by 44K jobs.

After watching significant downward revisions earlier this year, I am paying attention to that change in direction.

If you've ever wondered how ADP and BLS can release employment numbers this different, I recorded a video explaining how these reports are created and why they don't always tell the same story.

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas Report

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas added another encouraging signal with their September 3rd report, stating that U.S.-based employers announced nearly 53K job cuts in August.

That is still more job loss than any of us would like to see.

But August marked the sixth month this year when announced cuts were lower than the corresponding month in the previous year. The January through August total was also the lowest for that period since 2022.

Andy Challenger, workplace expert and Chief Revenue Officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, described it this way:

“This is the quietest August since 2022, but is generally on average for the month since the mid 2010s.”

There was another part of the report that I found particularly interesting.

AI was no longer the leading reason companies cited for August job cuts.

Restructuring led the month, accounting for approximately 16K cuts, or 31% of the total.

AI fell to fourth with approximately 3K+ cuts, its lowest monthly level since December 2025. AI does, however, remain the leading reason cited for job cuts year to date.

Employers also announced plans to hire 12K+ workers in August.

And Challenger raised a question that gets right to the heart of what I've been seeing:

“The questions are how long will it take employers to actually fill these roles and will they find workers with the requisite skills?”

Those are very good questions.

What's Emerging: The Numbers Are Better, but They Still Don't Tell One Story

There is plenty in these reports to feel encouraged about.

ADP reported private-sector growth.

BLS reported significant employment growth and upward revisions.

Challenger reported relatively slower layoff activity.

Companies are announcing plans to hire.

Yet the numbers still don't align.

A +38K ADP report and a +162K BLS report represent very different pictures of the pace of hiring.

Understanding why requires us to look at how these numbers are produced.

How Are These Employment Numbers Actually Collected?

ADP is one of the largest payroll processors in the United States. Its National Employment Report is built using anonymized payroll data from more than half a million companies representing more than 26M employees.

These 38,000 jobs represent actual people appearing on actual company payrolls.

The BLS Employment Situation is different.

Its headline payroll number comes from the Current Employment Statistics establishment survey. BLS surveys a sample of businesses and government agencies to estimate employment across the economy.

The first estimate is published quickly, before every participating organization has responded. As additional information arrives, BLS revises the previous two months. The estimates are also benchmarked annually against more comprehensive employment records.

That doesn't make the BLS report unreliable.

It means the first number we receive is preliminary by design.

We've seen the consequences of that throughout 2026 as earlier estimates have changed, sometimes substantially, in subsequent reports.

Personally, I pay close attention to ADP because its payroll-based methodology feels especially tangible to me. I also pay attention to BLS because it measures a broader labor market and gives us information ADP cannot.

The reports become much more useful when we understand what each one is actually measuring.

What About All Those Open Jobs?

The latest JOLTS data adds another dimension.

Once again, employers reported more job openings than hires.

I want to be precise about what that means.

Job openings and hires aren't two steps in a single hiring funnel. JOLTS measures them differently. Openings represent positions employers report available at a particular point in time, while hires measure people who joined payrolls during the month.

Still, looking at both measures tells us something useful.

Employer demand exists. Actual movement into jobs remains more subdued.

That aligns remarkably well with Challenger's question about how quickly employers will fill their planned positions.

And it aligns with what many job seekers are experiencing.

Jobs are posted.

Interviews happen.

Processes stretch out.

Decisions take time.

Employers appear to be adding headcount carefully.

Learn more about the July 2026 JOLTS report here, Job Market Reality Check: The Jobs Are Open. The Hiring Is Complicated.

Three Reality Checks I Can't Ignore

1. There Are Genuine Signs of Improvement

BLS reported +162K jobs.

Previous estimates were revised upward.

Layoff announcements were lower than this same time a year ago.

ADP remained positive.

Taken together, I see reasons for cautious optimism.

2. Methodology Matters

ADP and BLS are measuring employment differently.

The difference between +38K and +162K demonstrates exactly why I don't recommend drawing conclusions about your career from one headline.

Look across the data.

Then look at what's happening in your industry, profession, geography, and organization.

3. Employers Still Appear Cautious

Openings exist.

Hiring plans exist.

People are getting hired.

But employers don't appear to be rushing.

They are taking their time, evaluating skills, and making careful decisions about adding headcount.

That matters for anyone considering a job search this fall.

Professional Gen X woman preparing for fall job interviews during the September Surge hiring season.

What Does This All Mean for Your Career?

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the September Surge and told you I wasn't quite ready to declare that it was coming this year.

I'm still not 100% ready to make that promise.

But I'm more encouraged today than I was when I wrote that article on August 31st.

There are signs that organizations are hiring.

There are signs that layoffs are slowing.

There are signs that companies intend to add workers.

And there are signs that employers are thinking very carefully about the skills they need.

That last point matters so much.

If you're considering a career move, I wouldn't recommend spending September waiting to see whether a surge officially arrives.

Take action towards it.

Look at the roles you're targeting.

What skills appear repeatedly?

What has changed in those roles over the past year?

Where is AI showing up?

What skills do you already have that employers are struggling to find?

Where do you need additional development?

The labor market doesn't need to be perfect for you to find an opportunity.

You need to be prepared when your opportunity appears.

What To Do Next

Know What Employers Need

Review several job descriptions for the roles you're targeting.

Look beyond the job titles.

Identify recurring skills, technology, responsibilities, and business problems.

Close a Skills Gap

Challenger's question about whether employers can find workers with the skills they need should get your attention.

If you identify a meaningful gap, start working on it.

Take the course.

Attend the workshop.

Experiment with the technology.

Ask for the project at work that gives you exposure.

Get in the Room With AI

AI remains the leading reason cited for announced job cuts year to date, even though it dropped significantly as a reason in August.

This is not a reason to be fearful…turn on the curiosity instead.

Keep learning.

Understand how AI is changing your function and your industry.

Look for ways to participate in that change inside your current organization.

If you need more ideas, read up on some options toget in the room with AI.

Build Relationships Before You Need Them

Reach out to someone at a target company.

Reconnect with a former colleague.

Ask someone what they're seeing inside their organization.

Relationships can provide context that employment reports never will.

Prepare for the Opportunity

Update your résumé.

Strengthen your LinkedIn profile.

Practice your career stories.

Know how to quantify your accomplishments.

Don't wait for the interview request to start preparing for the interview.

The Reality Check

Are the August numbers good news?

I think so.

Are they proof that the job market has suddenly become easy?

No.

Are they evidence that the September Surge has officially arrived and the end of the year hiring will be impressive?

I'm not ready to say that yet.

What I am seeing is movement.

Hiring.

Fewer layoffs compared with last year.

Upward revisions.

Employers planning additional hires.

And continued caution about how quickly companies add people and which skills they are willing to invest in.

That gives me reason to be hopeful.

It also gives us reason to stay prepared.

Don't let one headline number tell you what the entire job market looks like.

Pay attention to the reports.

Understand how they're created.

Watch what's happening in your industry.

Talk to people.

Keep developing your skills.

And be ready when opportunity finds you.

The September Surge may or may not arrive the way we've known it in previous years. Your career doesn't have to wait for the answer.

If you'd like help evaluating your career strategy, preparing for what's next, or positioning yourself for new opportunities, my virtual Zoom door is open.

➤ Book your Reinvent Your Career Strategy Session